11 Oct 2017
Initial reports on the GST rollout suggest that collection of the new tax exceeded government expectations by 1.5% in spite of the fact that 36% of projected assessees failed to file. It does appear, however, that some small and medium enterprises are suffering cash flow problems when their input GST rates differ from their output rates, given the delay in recovering input deductions. Meanwhile, Aadhaar-based direct benefit transfers have exceeded $13bn. First quarter GDP growth was a disappointing 5.9%. Manufacturing grew by a mere 1.2% and agriculture just 2.3%. Services grew by 8.7%, with a 6.4% contribution coming from financial services. September’s manufacturing PMI was 51.2, the same as August and the Services PMI recovered from two months of contraction to register 50.7 in September. August CPI inflation was 3.4%, up slightly on firmer food prices, but the WPI number was softer at 3.2%. The RBI monetary policy committee held interest rates steady at its latest review.
Posted by #richardneve at 10/11/2017
10 Oct 2017
The monsoon season has drawn to a close, with aggregate rainfall less than 5% below the long period average, which is defined as a normal monsoon. The dispersion has been very uneven though, with a number of regions in shortfall, yet others reporting late season flooding. As a result, Kharif cropping is about 2-3% down on last year. The late flooding is leaving much improved moisture content in the soil, which will provide well for the Rabi crop. Reservoir levels are still improving though the late moisture retention will help a lot. Overall, expectations for aggregate rural demand through the festive season are good. In order to protect farmers against market risks on their cops, the government is introducing an ambitious crop insurance scheme. This will insure farmers against crop volume risk due to adverse weather conditions.
Posted by #richardneve at 10/10/2017
9 Oct 2017
Equity markets continue to enjoy broad upward momentum while growth is sustained and, in particular corporate earnings continue to please. Another US interest rate hike this year is now the consensus, even if the underlying inflation expectations are not convincing. Indian markets have been vacillating in a range of 500 points around the 10,000 level without seeing much sustained upward momentum or, indeed downside risk. Has increased by just 1.2% to 9980 after trading in a range of 5.1%. Average daily trading volumes have shifted upwards with a trailing average now at $4.7bn and daily numbers rising every week. Foreign portfolio investors have been consistent sellers of Indian equities on a relative valuation basis for some time now, unloading a net $3,1bn in the latest month. Domestic institutions have largely offset this, buying a net $2.8bn in ash equities but brokers are also reporting a substantial increase in retail buying in the expectation of recent returns being repeated. Volatility remains subdued nonetheless, with the India VIX trading in a narrow range between 9 and 14 before settling at 11. Market breadth is narrow as the market declines but strong on the rise. Nifty futures are typically trading at a premium of 1% to cash.
Posted by #richardneve at 10/09/2017